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La arquitectura social del capitalismo

Ian Wright

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Las cosas están empeorando

En los últimos 30 años la desigualdad económica ha aumentado considerablemente. Las personas de abajo luchan por la comida y la vivienda, mientras que las que están arriba ganan varios salarios anuales medio mientras duermen. La mayoría de los de en medio trabajan duro, pero no pueden ahorrar, y acaban viviendo toda su vida a poco de caer en la indigencia.

Recientemente conté que había 5 personas durmiendo en las puertas de las tiendas de Cowley Road. Una escena así era impensable hace 30 años. Sin embargo, el no tener vivienda es sólo un síntoma muy visible de una catástrofe social mucho más grande.

Las cosas se han puesto tan mal que incluso el discurso dominante ha cambiado para reflejar la nueva realidad. Se nos dice día tras día que los “millennials” se enfrentan a salarios bajos, trabajos de mala calidad, deudas impagables y en general peores condiciones económicas comparados con sus padres. La gente ahora acepta que el sistema político está manipulado por una elite rica que ha capturado las instituciones del estado-nación. Incluso el archiconservador mundo de la economía académica habla de la desigualdad. Simplemente eso no ocurría hace sólo 10 años.

Para los partidarios del capitalismo, tanto de la izquierda como de la derecha, este empeoramiento de la situación plantea un claro problema. Obviamente algo ha salido mal. ¿Pero qué?

Una respuesta típica

El Instituto de Investigación de Políticas Públicas (Institute for Public Policy Research, IPPR), un grupo de expertos blairistas con sede en el Reino Unido, publicó un informe sobre la desigualdad económica en octubre de este año. El informe presenta una respuesta típicamente centrista a esta crisis social.

El informe inspecciona los datos empíricos, dibujando un cuadro familiar y deprimente. La mayor parte de la gente no tiene casi riqueza y está endeudada. 5 millones de personas ganan menos de 8 libras con 10 por hora. Como contraste, el 10% más rico posee el 50% de la riqueza de la nación. Y la mayoría de esa riqueza no es ganada, ya no se obtiene poniendo mano de obra, sino por la mera propiedad de los activos.

Así, ¿cuáles son las causas de esta desigualdad extrema, y por qué está aumentando? Esta es el gran interrogante que el informe pretende responder.

Los autores [del informe] dan 5 razones por las que la desigualdad está aumentando:

  • Primero, la vivienda. La tasa de propiedad de viviendas está bajando.
  • Segundo, el capital. No es de propiedad igualitaria. Así que los beneficios no se distribuyen por igual.
  • Tercero, los gobiernos. Han decidido gravar cada vez menos a los ricos.
  • Cuarto, los salarios. Son demasiado bajos. Así que la gente no puede ahorrar y acumular riqueza.
  • Quinto, la demanda de mano de obra. Está disminuyendo debido a la automatización y al llamado capitalismo digital.

No voy a perder tiempo para explicar por qué estas razones son tonterías. En su lugar, simplemente diré que son síntomas de una creciente desigualdad, no causas de ella.

Así que el informe no responde en absoluto a la pregunta que plantea. Y me complace decir, no sin algo de vanidad, que esto es exactamente lo que esperaba antes de leerlo.

También esperaba, y me alegraba que se confirmara mis designios, que el informe evitara toda mención de los trabajadores y los capitalistas. Por supuesto, se habla mucho de la estratificación social definida por los investigadores de mercado. Pero el informe no menciona que el capitalismo es un sistema en el que una clase económica explota sistemáticamente a otra.

Y su explotación económica – no la vivienda, las políticas fiscales o los bajos salarios – es la causa principal de la desigualdad económica que vemos a nuestro alrededor.

En este post, quiero hacer esa afirmación muy real: quiero demostrar que la explotación económica explica la desigualdad económica y, por lo tanto, por qué la mayoría de los principales discursos sobre la desigualdad no tienen sentido.

Modelar la anarquía

Para hacer la afirmación necesitamos un modelo [matemático] de explotación económica.

En un principio nos encontramos con un problema inmediato. Una economía consiste en un gran número de personas que interactúan todo el tiempo. Es anárquico. ¿Cómo podemos construir un modelo económico que prediga las consecuencias de la interacción de millones y millones de personas?

Bueno, una buena manera de entender los sistemas con un gran número de grados de libertad [en nuestro caso, interacciones entre personas] es verlos como máquinas aleatorias que maximizan la entropía sujeta a restricciones.

Voy a explicar esto, paso a paso, con un ejemplo.

Imagina que tenemos una coctelera llena de millones de granos de arena. Agitamos la arena muy vigorosamente para que las partículas se muevan libremente. Luego, en un instante de tiempo dado, medimos la velocidad de cada partícula. Obtenemos así millones de medidas de velocidad individuales.

Con esas velocidades [medidas] hacemos un histograma. Contamos cuántos granos tienen una velocidad entre 0 y 1 m/s. Y contamos cuántos tienen una velocidad entre 1 y 2 m/s. Y así sucesivamente. Así, por cada intervalo de velocidad obtenemos un conteo de cuántos granos hay con esa velocidad.

Lo que encontramos [en la realidad] es que la mayoría de los granos de arena se mueven muy lentamente. Cada vez menos granos se mueven a velocidades más altas. Y sólo un pequeño número se mueve realmente rápido.

Imaginemos que seguimos agitando la arena y medimos de nuevo las velocidades unos momentos después. La velocidad de cada grano habrá cambiado. Los granos lentos ahora se mueven rápido y viceversa. Pero la distribución general de las velocidades no ha cambiado. El histograma tiene la misma pinta.

Para sistemas con un gran número de grados de libertad, como la arena de nuestra coctelera, la velocidad de un grano individual es aleatoria e impredecible. Por el contrario, la distribución general de las velocidades es regular, y parece seguir una ley simple. De hecho, la distribución de las velocidades es un ejemplo de una distribución exponencial negativa.

Así que, ¿por qué es esto? ¿Por qué la aleatoriedad a nivel micro genera regularidades a nivel macro?

Cuando agitamos la arena, estamos introduciendo energía cinética en el sistema. Una colisión frontal entre dos partículas reduce la velocidad de ambas. Pero una partícula obtiene un aumento de velocidad cuando se la golpea por detrás. Al agitar, transferimos energía al azar entre las partículas.

La mayoría de las veces, cualquier ganancia en velocidad tras una colisión se pierde rápidamente en la siguiente. Y esto es porque la mayoría de las partículas tienen una baja velocidad. Pero un número muy pequeño de partículas tienen suerte y tienen una secuencia de colisiones que aumentan la velocidad. Estas son las partículas súper rápidas.

Podemos formalizar estas ideas en términos de entropía. Piensa en la entropía como un número que mide la aleatoriedad de una distribución. Cuanto mayor sea la entropía, más aleatoria será la distribución.

La distribución más aleatoria de todas es la distribución uniforme:

Una distribución uniforme corresponde a encontrar el mismo número de partículas de arena a cada velocidad. Es la distribución más aleatoria porque cada velocidad es igualmente probable.

Pero [en nuestra coctelera] no vemos una distribución uniforme. Vemos una distribución exponencial, donde las velocidades más bajas son más frecuentes que las altas.

Las sacudidas hacen la distribución de la energía en el sistema aleatoria y aumentan su entropía.

Pero hay algo que impide que el agitamiento maximice la entropía. Hay algún tipo de obstáculo en el sistema que actúa para reducir un poco la aleatoriedad. Hay una restricción en la maximización de la entropía.

Esa limitación es la conservación de la energía.

Añado energía al agitar, pero el sistema pierde energía en forma de calor y sonido. En términos generales, el cambio neto de energía en el sistema es cero. Así, aunque cada colisión transfiere cantidades desiguales de energía, la energía total del sistema siempre se conserva.

Podemos calcular la distribución que corresponde a la entropía máxima sujeta a una restricción sobre la energía total. Y resulta que la solución a este problema de optimización es la distribución exponencial.

Aquí tenemos los inicios de un método para entender los sistemas con un gran número de grados de libertad. A nivel micro, el sistema se confunde y se vuelve aleatorio. Básicamente, cualquier cosa puede suceder. Pero a nivel macro hay limitaciones globales que siempre se observan. Así que hay una interacción entre las fuerzas que pugnan por la aleatoriedad y las fuerzas que ordenan. La técnica de máxima entropía puede predecir a veces las consecuencias de esa interacción.

Los mercados como maximizadores de la entropía

Sorprendentemente, estas ideas se aplican directamente a los sistemas económicos.

Las transacciones en el mercado implican una transferencia de valor monetario. Después de cualquier transacción una de las partes puede tener más o menos dinero que antes.

Es bastante fácil escribir un pequeño programa de simulación que tome una gran cantidad de individuos que empiecen con cantidades iguales de dinero. Luego se eligen dos individuos al azar. Uno es el comprador. Elegimos al azar una proporción de su dinero para gastar. El vendedor recibe ese dinero. Luego repetimos, y elegimos otros dos individuos al azar. Y seguimos haciendo ad infinitum.

Tras un periodo más o menos corto, podemos entonces medir la distribución del dinero entre los individuos. Y encontramos, de nuevo, la distribución exponencial. La mayoría de los individuos tienen muy poco dinero, y una pequeña minoría tiene mucho.

Así que la actividad de intercambio del mercado actúa como la coctelera: mezcla todo, hace aleatorias las cosas y maximiza la entropía del sistema.

Puedes ver este proceso en tiempo real en este video (cortesía de Victor Yakovenko, con quien colaboré en el libro “Classical Econophysics”):

Podrías pensar que este modelo de intercambio de dinero es demasiado simple para poder describir algo de mercados reales. Pero te equivocarías.

Sorprendentemente, observamos una distribución exponencial en las economías reales. La exponencial se ajusta perfectamente al 80% inferior en la distribución de la riqueza, que es la gran mayoría de la población. Y esto es cierto para cualquier país capitalista que miremos.

El hecho de que el 80% de la distribución de la riqueza de las economías reales siga una ley exponencial es asombrosamente regular.

Podríamos pensar que las diferencias de riqueza surgen, pues, de circunstancias de nacimiento o de capacidades individuales. Pero el principio de maximización de la entropía nos dice que hay un factor causal mucho más importante en juego. Incluso en una economía con individuos idénticos con idénticas dotaciones iniciales de dinero, obtenemos rápidamente una desigualdad extrema de ingresos.

El quid de la cuestión es que los mercados son máquinas aleatorias, que maximizan la entropía, y este hecho por sí solo es suficiente para explicar parte de la desigualdad que observamos.

Así que la anarquía del mercado es la causa principal y esencial de la desigualdad económica.

¿Pero por qué la ley exponencial no se ajusta a toda la distribución de la riqueza? ¿Qué pasa con el 20% restante de los ricos?

Bueno, debe haber otra restricción en el sistema, además de la conservación de dinero a cambio. Algún principio adicional, que aún tenemos que especificar, debe estar reduciendo la entropía del sistema.

Las relaciones sociales de producción como limitaciones

Este artículo contiene un modelo macroeconómico del capitalismo. Aunque es simple, es poderoso para explicar [el capitalismo].

El modelo asume, como antes, que la población y la cantidad total de dinero son fijas.

Sin embargo, el modelo añade algunas nuevas restricciones no aleatorias al sistema que se derivan de la relación social fundamental de las sociedades capitalistas: que los capitalistas contraten a los trabajadores, les paguen los salarios y se queden con los beneficios.

Así, un individuo en este modelo, en cualquier momento, está sólo en uno de los siguientes tres estados: está desempleado, está trabajando para otra persona, o es un empleador.

Y el dinero ahora fluye diferente en virtud del sistema de salarios. Estas reglas de distribución añaden nuevas restricciones al sistema, reduciendo su entropía.

Análogamente, estamos añadiendo cierta estructura interna a nuestra coctelera. Añadiremos un pequeño filtro, cerca de la parte superior de la coctelera. La arena puede fluir a través de este filtro. Pero una vez que la arena está en la parte superior, es menos probable que caiga de nuevo al fondo.

Así que voy a pasar los próximos minutos describiendo las reglas que rigen cómo los individuos cambian de estado y transfieren el dinero entre ellos.

¿Cómo se contrata a la gente?

Modelo el sistema de salarios de una manera muy simple. Si una persona está desempleada, entonces hay cierta probabilidad de que sea contratada por un empleador. Los empleadores más ricos tienen más probabilidades de contratar a más trabajadores porque pueden pagar un mayor costo salarial.

Casi no hay ninguna posibilidad de que un desempleado actual contrate a otro desempleado. En ese caso, una persona se convertiría entonces en empleadora, y la otra en trabajadora. Así es como nacen las nuevas empresas.

¿Cómo se paga a la gente por su trabajo?

Los empleadores pagan los salarios a todos sus empleados a cambio de su trabajo. El salario se elige al azar de un rango fijo, que es bastante amplio. Así, aunque hay un salario promedio en el sistema, los salarios individuales varían con holgura alrededor de ese promedio.

¿Cómo gasta la gente sus ingresos en bienes?

Todos los individuos, ya sean empleadores, empleados o desempleados, gastan su dinero en el mercado de bienes de consumo y de capitales. Gastan una cantidad aleatoria entre 0 y el total del dinero que poseen. Este gasto se suma a la demanda agregada de la economía.

No nos molestamos en especificar qué bienes y servicios reales se compran. Sólo estamos interesados en los flujos de dinero.

Cuando los trabajadores gastan, asumimos que están comprando bienes de consumo. Cuando los empleadores gastan, asumimos que están comprando bienes de consumo para ellos y capital para su empresa.

¿Cómo producen y venden las empresas los bienes?

La empresa capitalista individual, o firma, es simplemente una relación jerárquica entre un único empleador y varios empleados.

Cada trabajador suministra mano de obra que añade valor al producto de la empresa. Pero, ¿cuánto valor añaden? No nos molestamos en especificar eso. Sólo nos preocupamos por las limitaciones a nivel macro. Simplemente asumimos que cualquier trabajador individual debe agregar valor en algún lugar entre absolutamente nada y el nivel actual de la demanda agregada en el mercado.

Algunos trabajos pueden ser inútiles y perjudicar los ingresos de la empresa, mientras que otros pueden ser súper valiosos. En este nivel micro puede suceder cualquier cosa, sujeto a la dura restricción de que ningún trabajador puede generar más ingresos que el poder adquisitivo disponible.

Así, los trabajadores generan ingresos para sus empleadores. Los empleadores pagan los salarios. Y cualquier ingreso residual es su ganancia.

¿Cómo se despide a los trabajadores?

Nadie es despedido si el empleador puede pagar la totalidad de su salario. De lo contrario, la fuerza de trabajo de la empresa se reduce a un tamaño que pueda pagar.

Por ejemplo, si una empresa necesita despedir a 10 trabajadores, entonces se eligen 10 al azar. Entonces, las empresas que no obtengan beneficios perderán trabajadores. Por el contrario, las empresas que obtienen muchos beneficios tenderán a contratar más trabajadores.

Si una empresa despide a todos sus trabajadores, entonces se disuelve. Y así es como las empresas mueren y dejan de operar en cierto punto.

¿Cómo se organiza todo esto?

Eso es todo. El modelo codifica unos pocos hechos muy básicos en las relaciones sociales de producción.

Las relaciones sociales limitan el sistema, que por lo demás es libre de evolucionar de forma aleatoria.

No obstante, resolver el problema de máxima entropía para este modelo es bastante difícil. Por suerte, podemos simular el sistema y luego simplemente observar las distribuciones que se generan.

El artículo describe un modelo de simulación en el que aplicamos repetidamente reglas de actualización a muchos miles de individuos. Ejecutar el programa es el equivalente a agitar la coctelera.

La simulación comienza con una población que tiene cantidades iguales de dinero, y que están todos desempleados. Luego los individuos rebotan al azar, intercambiando dinero, siendo contratados y despedidos, formando nuevas empresas y así sucesivamente, todo dentro de las limitaciones del sistema salarial.

¿Qué predice este modelo?

Entonces, ¿qué predice este modelo? ¿Qué sucede?

En la p. 599 del artículo, expongo gráficamente la distribución de los individuos en las clases económicas: es decir, empleadores, trabajadores y desempleados. Las distribuciones resultan ser normales.

Figura 1 del artículo. Distribuciones de clase: los histogramas muestras el número de actores en cada clase económica con una anchura de barra constante. Las líneas suaves son distribuciones normales ajustadas. En promedio, 71.2% de la población es obrera, 12.3% son capitalistas que emplean un trabajador o más y el 16.6% restante son desempleados.

Recuerda que, con el tiempo, los individuos pueden cambian de clase: un trabajador puede ser despedido, y contratado de nuevo, o iniciar una nueva empresa y convertirse en un pequeño capitalista. Las empresas pueden fracasar, y los capitalistas pueden volver a unirse a las filas de los trabajadores. Así, todo está cambiando continuamente.

Estas gráficas muestran que toda esta rotación resulta en distribuciones estables. La proporción de la población de cada clase fluctúa alrededor de valores medios definidos.

Alrededor del 71% de la población son trabajadores, el 12% son capitalistas y el 16% están desempleados, lo que es una buena aproximación a la vida real.

Es notable que el modelo se auto-organiza en una división de clases de la sociedad, con una minoría de empleadores y una mayoría de trabajadores.

En la p. 600 dibujo la distribución del tamaño de las empresas, medido por el número de empleados.

Figura 2 del artículo. Distribución del tamaño de las firmas: la figura muestra un histograma de los tamaños de las empresas por empleados en escala log-log con una anchura de barra de 1. La línea recta es una regresión por mínimos cuadrados normal de los datos, y representa una lay de potencia del tipo P(x) \propto x^{-(\alpha+1)} with exponent \alpha=1.038 para datos de los últimos 15 años simulados. Axtell [8] reporta \alpha=1.059 de datos de 5.5 millones de firmas de EEUU en 1997. El caso especial \alpha=1 se conoce como distribución de Zipf.

La distribución se ajusta muy bien a lo que se conoce como ley Zipf. En otras palabras, hay un gran número de empresas muy pequeñas, y muy pocas empresas muy grandes.

Una vez más, esta regularidad a nivel macro promedia una enorme cantidad de cambio a nivel micro. Las empresas nacen, crecen y mueren todo el tiempo. Sin embargo, el número de empresas de diferentes tamaños es estable.

Y, notablemente, esta distribución de tamaño de las empresas en las economías capitalistas reales es también Zipf.

En la página 601 presento la distribución de las tasas de crecimiento de las empresas, medidas en términos de aumento o disminución de las ventas o de los empleados.

Figura 3 del artículo. Distribución de la tasa de crecimiento de las firmas: histograma de las tasas logarítmicas de crecimiento de las firmas por año simulado en escala lineal-logarítmica con una anchura constante de barra de 1. El gráfico de la izquierda muestras la tasa de crecimiento de las ventas de la firma. El lado derecho muestra la tasa de crecimiento de los empleados. Las líneas sólidas son las regresiones por mínimos cuadrados de los datos y representan una distribución de Laplace (doble exponencial) P(x)\propto e^{-(|(x-\alpha)|/\beta)}. Las referencias [11-17] muestran que la tasa de crecimiento logarítmico de ventas y empleados de firmas de EEUU y de Italia siguen una distribución de Laplace.

Esta distribución sigue una distribución de Laplace. Esto significa que, la mayor parte del tiempo, el tamaño de una empresa cambia muy poco. Además, menos frecuentemente el cambio de tamaño puede ser dramático, ya sea un crecimiento rápido, o un evento de despido masivo.

Y, una vez más, también encontramos una distribución de Laplace en los datos empíricos sobre el crecimiento de las empresas.

La página 603 muestra cuántas empresas quiebran y dejan de operar en un corto período de tiempo.

Figura 4 del artículo: distribución de la quiebra de las firmas: histograma de la quiebra de las firmas por mes simulado en una escala logarítmica-lineal con una anchura de barra constante de 1. La línea sólida es un ajuste de la distribución lognormal. Cook y Ormerod [19] reportan que la distribución de la quiebra de firmas de EEUU entre 1989 y 1997 se aproxima bastante a esta distribución lognormal.

El modelo genera una distribución logarítmica normal, lo que significa que, en la mayoría de los períodos de tiempo, unas pocas empresas quiebran, pero sólo ocasionalmente tenemos eventos de extinción masiva.

Sorprendentemente, los datos empíricos también exhiben una ley normal de muertes de empresas.

En la p. 604 presento el cambio en el PIB de año en año, donde el PIB se define como el ingreso total de las empresas durante un año simulado.

Figura 5 del artículo: distribución reescalada del PIB: histograma de la tasa de crecimiento logarítmica del PIB en escala lineal-logarítmica con una anchura de barra constante de 1. Las líneas sólidas son las regresiones por mínimos cuadrados de los datos y representan una distribución de Laplace (doble exponencial) P(x)\propto e^{-(|(x-\alpha)|/\beta)}. La referencia [11] reporta que la tasa logarítmica de crecimiento del PIB de 152 países en el periodo 1950-1992 siguen una distribución de Laplace.

La simulación genera otra distribución de Laplace, que también coincide con los datos empíricos de crecimiento del PIB para las economías nacionales reales.

Podemos medir la duración de las recesiones en el modelo, que es el número de años sucesivos en los que el PIB es menor que el anterior.

Figura 6 del artículo. Distribución de la duración de la recesión: histograma de la frecuencia de la duración de las recesiones en escala logarítmica-lineal con una anchura de barra constante de 1. La línea sólida es un ajuste a una distribución exponencial. F(d) \propto \lambda e^{-(\lambda d)}, con exponente \lambda=1.22, representando un promedio de la duración de la recesión en 1.22 años simulados.

La simulación produce una distribución exponencial. Esto implica que hay muchas recesiones rápidas y no tantas recesiones largas.

Los datos empíricos sobre las recesiones reales son coherentes con una ley exponencial (sin embargo, el consenso es que sigue la denominada “ley potencial” o “ley de potencias”). Con todo, el modelo también está bastante cerca de la realidad aquí.

En la página 614 se muestra la tasa de beneficios de las empresas. Defino el beneficio de una forma muy simple (y algo inexacta), como el exceso de ingresos de la empresa sobre los costes salariales.

Figura 12 del artículo. Ajuste teórico a la distribución de la tasa de beneficio ponderada por firma. Las líneas sólidas representan la función de densidad de probabilidad f_p(x) escalada por una constante en el eje de las frecuencias. El gráfico derecho muestra la función y los datos en escala log-log y extiende el rango a los superbeneficios. Todos los beneficios mayores de 10000 están truncados, lo que da cuenta de los “outliers” con máxima tasa de beneficio.

Encontramos que las tasas de ganancia varían considerablemente. Se agrupan alrededor de un pico no negativo, con una larga cola que sigue una ley potencial. Así que, en cualquier momento, la mayoría de las empresas tienen un beneficio promedio, algunas tienen pérdidas, pero un pequeño número tienen súper, súper, beneficios.

Las distribuciones de la tasa de beneficios reales son cualitativamente muy similares a la figura 12.

Las desigualdades específicas del sistema salarial

Ahora ya podemos pasar a la principal pregunta que nos ocupa: ¿qué tipo de desigualdad económica genera este modelo?

En la página 608 se muestra la distribución de los ingresos de los individuos ganados durante un año simulado:

Figura 8 del artículo.  Análisis gráfico de la distribución de los ingresos estacionarios. Los ingresos se miden a lo largo de un año y los datos se recogen durante la duración de la simulación.  a) La distribución completa de los ingresos trazada como un función de distribución acumulativa en escala logarítmica. Los datos se ponen en barras de anchura constante 1. Obsérvese la característica forma de «rodilla», que se encuentra en las distribuciones empíricas. La transición de la escala logarítmica a la el régimen de Pareto se produce entre P(x)=0.1 y P(x)=0.01; lo que significa que menos del 10% de los ingresos sigue la ley de Pareto. b) Los componentes de clase de la distribución de ingresos trazados como funciones de distribución acumulativa en escala logarítmica. Obsérvese la larga cola de la distribución de ingresos capitalista. El ingreso de los trabajadores se agrupa en torno al salario medio. c) El régimen inferior de la distribución del ingreso representado en escala logarítmica lineal. La línea sólida es un ajuste a una distribución logarítmica normal. La distribución, aproximadamente lognormal, resulta de una mezcla de ingresos salariales y de ingresos de pequeños empleadores. d) El régimen de la ley potencial de la distribución de ingresos trazada como función de distribución acumulativa en escala logarítmica. La línea recta es un ajuste a la ley potencial de Pareto, P(x)\propto x^{-(\alpha+1)}, donde \alpha = 1.3

Como era de esperar, la distribución de los ingresos es muy desigual. Pero vemos dos regímenes distintos: un régimen más bajo de ingresos salariales, y un régimen más alto de ingresos de beneficios.

Los ingresos salariales siguen una ley “normal logarítmica”. Hay, pues, desigualdad salarial, con un pequeño número de trabajadores que ganan altos salarios, con la mayoría agrupados en torno a un modo [o promedio].

Los ingresos por ganancias, en cambio, siguen una distribución “de Pareto”, que tiene una larga cola, lo que significa que encontramos algunos individuos con ingresos súper, súper altos. De hecho, la desigualdad en ingresos por beneficios supera a la desigualdad de los ingresos salariales. Así que algunas personas ricas son tremendamente más ricas que otras.

Y, una vez más, esta distribución de dos regímenes es precisamente lo que encontramos en las economías reales. Realmente un rasero [una distribución] para los ricos y otro[a] para los pobres.

La distribución de la riqueza real tiene una estructura similar, con dos regímenes. La riqueza obedece a una ley exponencial para los trabajadores, y una ley de Pareto para los capitalistas.

Entonces, ¿qué es lo que causa realmente la desigualdad?

Ahora tenemos un modelo que reproduce una amplia gama de datos empíricos de las economías capitalistas reales.

¿Qué nos dice el modelo sobre la causa fundamental de la desigualdad económica?

Vimos que maximizar la entropía bajo la única restricción de la conservación del dinero produce una distribución exponencial de la riqueza. Eso ya es bastante desigual. Así que la primera causa de la desigualdad es lo que Adam Smith llamó el » higgling and haggling» del mercado. Como la gente es libre de mercadear, la entropía aumenta y la distribución del dinero se vuelve desigual.

Pero no encontramos una distribución exponencial en las economías capitalistas actuales. Encontramos algo más complejo. Eso es porque las economías capitalistas obedecen a restricciones adicionales sobre cómo se mueve el dinero entre los individuos. Los mercados no son la única causa de la desigualdad que vemos en el capitalismo.

La producción en el capitalismo tiene lugar en instituciones que tienen dos clases distintas de participantes: los que son dueños de la empresa, y obtienen los beneficios, y los empleados de la empresa, que reciben un salario.

Podemos pensar en las empresas capitalistas como pequeñas máquinas sociales, que operan en el contexto de una economía de mercado, que «clasifican» a los individuos en diferentes clases por medio del sistema salarial. Esta clasificación reduce la aleatoriedad y disminuye la entropía del sistema general. La distribución máxima de la entropía, en estas circunstancias, es diferente: tiene 2 regímenes, uno para los capitalistas y otro para los trabajadores.

Las empresas siguen una “distribución potencial” en tamaño. Y el capital se concentra de la misma manera. Un gran número de pequeños capitales explotan a un pequeño grupo de trabajadores, y un pequeño número de grandes capitales explotan a un gran grupo de trabajadores. Las ganancias son aproximadamente proporcionales al número de trabajadores empleados. Así que los ingresos capitalistas también siguen una ley potencial.

Cuantos más trabajadores exploten, más beneficios obtendrán. Cuanto más beneficio se obtiene, más trabajadores se pueden explotar. Y una vez que llegas a la categoría de rico, disfrutas de los efectos de retroalimentación positivos.

En este estado elevado, puedes dormirte, despertarte a la mañana siguiente y haber ganado más que los trabajadores ganan en toda su vida.

Así que la segunda causa de la desigualdad económica es el propio sistema de salarios.

Deja de hablar de desigualdad, empieza a hablar de explotación

Ahora podemos ver lo que se pasa normalmente por alto en los principales análisis de la desigualdad económica.

En el informe del IPPR se afirma que las principales causas del aumento de la desigualdad son la desigualdad en la propiedad del capital, la política de vivienda, los bajos salarios, la fiscalidad regresiva y la automatización.

Pero acabamos de ver que, incluso si reorganizáramos la sociedad, poniéndola en un estado perfectamente equitativo, en el que las clases aún no se han formado y todos tienen la misma riqueza, entonces –y como consecuencia de las leyes de hierro de la termodinámica- la mera existencia de mercados y de un sistema de salarios producirá rápidamente el mismo tipo de desigualdad que hoy vemos a nuestro alrededor.

Así que quid de la cuestión es este: la arquitectura social fundamental del capitalismo es la principal causa de la desigualdad económica. No podemos tener capitalismo sin desigualdad: es una consecuencia ineludible y necesaria de las reglas económicas del juego.

Las políticas de los gobiernos puedes intentar controlar esta tendencia básica, por supuesto. Y la mayoría de nosotros obtendríamos un beneficio marginal de una política de vivienda, fiscal y salarial más inteligente. Pero tales reformas poco sistémicas son sólo un vendaje en la herida abierta.

Y, como los ricos han capturado las instituciones democráticas, incluso esas reformas suaves son fácilmente eliminadas [y eliminables]. Hemos visto ya unas cuantas políticas de posguerra que controlaban la desigualdad económica y han sido abandonadas en los últimos 30 años. Y es por eso que las cosas han empeorado aún más.

La desigualdad económica extrema causa una miseria incalculable. En la cima vemos un hiperconsumo excesivo y derrochador. En la parte inferior, incontables luchas diarias por vivir una vida digna.

Y décadas de reformas políticas no han producido una sociedad ni justa ni equitativa. Ni nunca lo harán. Es absolutamente utópico pensar que podrían.

Para comprender en serio la desigualdad económica hay que pensar en los fundamentos: que es el sistema salarial, en el que una clase explota sistemáticamente a otra. Necesitamos hablar mucho menos de la desigualdad y mucho más de la explotación.

(2005) La arquitectura social del capitalismo. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 346, pp. 589-622. PDF

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